A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
